NCAA Season 87 Finals Preview: San Beda vs San Sebastian

Monday will mark the start of the men’s basketball finals of the 87th NCAA season. For the third straight time, the San Beda Red Lions and San Sebastian Golden Stags will dispute the zenith of their college basketball season.

San Sebastian put and end to the 26-game winning streak of the Red Lions with a victory in the first round, then had their own 15-game run ended by the hard-nosed Letran Knights in the second round, abrogating their dream of a sweep and express trip to the finals. The defending champion Red Lions, meanwhile, are in the unusual position of being the underdogs, although they seem to be peaking at the right time.

In the interim, San Sebastian has lost four games to end the season. The Stags fell to Letran and San Beda at the end of the second round, ending up in a tie for first place with the Red Lions at 16 wins and two losses, then lost to San Beda again in the tie-breaker to determine first and second places.

In the Final Four, the Stags, seeded second, had a twice-to-beat advantage when they played the third-placed Knights. They needed it. Letran stole the first game. Strangely, San Sebastian did not score a field goal in the fourth quarter, making a living from the free throw line instead. In the first half of that low-scoring affair, the Stags bench only chipped in two points. Jam Cortes, Kevin Alas and Mark Cruz had 16, 15 and 12 points, respectively, and helped limit the Stags to 62 points, 22 below their average. San Beda, for its part, eventually overwhelmed and eliminated the Jose Rizal University Bombers, 83-74, aided by seven blocked shots from Dave Marcelo.

The surprising losses have unmasked the weakness of the Stags: their bench. Outside of the triumvirate of center Ian Sangalang, power forward Calvin Abueva and swingman Ronald Pascual, the erstwhile champions do not get much firepower from anywhere else. Nobody else averages double figures in any statistical category. Abueva, nicknamed “The Beast”, has been putting up MVP numbers: 21 points and 13 rebounds per game. However, the 6’2” Kapampangan bulldozer has the penchant for trying to take the ball coast to coast and running into trouble. Early in the second round, head coach Topex Robinson has called early time-outs and benched Abueva for long stretches to keep him in control. The effects, however, seem to have worn off.

“I’ve told him that he has to play within the system,” Robinson told The STAR. “I’m not afraid to bench him.”

The Red Lions, meanwhile, have been devastating on defense, using their tremendous size advantage to muzzle all opposition. Head coach Frankie Lim often employs twin tower alignments of 6’6” Jake Pascual and 6’6” Kyle Pascual or 6’6” Dave Marcelo and 6’5” David Semerad. The Pascual and Pascual and Dave and Dave combos have stopped penetrations and launched the deadly fast break that has minimized whatever weaknesses the Red Lions have had at the point guard spot.

There was much talk about how the champions would maintain their standing after last season’s MVP Sudan Daniel suffered an ACL tear in a pre-season game against Ateneo. To Lim’s own surprise, Daniel has suited up for the last five games, but the coach has no plans of playing him at all. Lim also rates as “good, but not great” the performance of rookie Baser Amer. The rookie point guard who won championships for the Red Cubs has not been as consistent, and still falters on the fast break, but it doesn’t bother Lim. What he is relieved about is the healthy return of Anthony Semerad, who has been averaging double figures in their last few games. Semerad was out for three weeks from a bout with dengue.

“I wasn’t able to eat for four or five days,” the Fil-Australian twin revealed. “I lost 15 pounds. I’m just happy to be back.”

“Everybody was talking about Sudan, Sudan, Sudan. But Anthony wasn’t playing, either,” admitted Lim. “We were just finding a way to cover up his absence, He’s been really big for us.”

The Stags would do well to hit their stride early and try to build a big lead. Robinson has experimented with either Pascual or Abueva coming off the bench, and Jovit dela Cruz at guard or any of their revolving door of forwards. But against the Red Lions, it may leave them susceptible to being blown off the floor. San Sebastian has to marshall its fouls and hit the open shot. In their first Final Four game against Letran, Pascual hit two three-pointers, then disappeared. They cannot afford a power outage against a team that lives of shut-down D.

For San Beda, its main problem is getting the ball inside the paint when things aren’t flowing and they aren’t running. Team captain Garvo Lanete has been consistent from the outside and creates his own offense, but San Beda is a different team when they can’t get into transition. That having been said, they have the advantage off the boards, and show no signs of letting up.

For San Sebastian to win, Abueva has to keep his head in the game and his focus on the team. Sangalang has to get his touches inside, and the bench has to contribute. For San Beda, their running game and outside shooting will be key, especially when Anthony Semerad comes off the bench. This was the match-up that fans have been expecting, and each team has been looking over its shoulder at the other all season long. Both coaches have said there are no more secrets. However, knowing both teams, the consensus is that if San Beda wins Game One, they will not want to allow a Game Three.

source: Bill Velasco